By Conservative loss bodes ill for local MPs
As Labour wins the Chester by-election with 61% of the vote, the outcome of future elections sits in the balance as the Conservatives start to panic.
Triggered by the resignation of Christian Matheson due to sexual misconduct, Labour retained their seat with an even bigger majority than their win in 2019.
Winning with a majority of 61% with only a 41% turnout puts the Tory party in a precarious position as very few members of the public wish to vote, and those that do have swung to Labour.
Elections expert Prof Sir John Curtice told BBC Radio 4’s Today programme: “Labour are in a stronger position than they have been at any point in the last 12 years.”
While the swing from Conservatives to Labour “wouldn’t produce an enormous majority” were it to be replicated in a general election, it would certainly be enough for Labour to form a new government.
In her victory speech Mrs Dixon said the people of Chester “have said unreservedly that Rishi Sunak’s Conservatives no longer have a mandate to govern”.
She added: “I don’t think they believe that the Conservatives have the answers, I think they think it’s Labour’s turn now.”
She then told the BBC: “Voters in Chester really are fed up with the government.
“I think they’ve turned to Labour values and have put crosses next to my name in significant numbers.
“What I’ve heard very much on the doorstep is that people really are very worried about their future and the future of their families.”
For local MPs Martin Vickers and Lia Nici, the hold they have on their seats could be slipping away as faith in the Conservative oarty continues to fall.
Recent data from the electoral calculus predicted that both MPs would losed their seats in the next general election.
Cleethorpes MP Martin Vickers won in 2019 with a 62% turnout, winning 31,969 votes.
However, the electoral calculus predicts that the next election with a similar turnout Labour would win with a 55% majority.
Over in Grimsby, MP Lia Nici won in 2019 with 18,150 votes and a 53.9% turnout.
Electoral calculus predicts that Labour would easily take this seat with a 93% of voters intending to swing to the other wing.
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