By Millions of Britons need to catch Coronavirus for herd immunity
The government’s chief scientific adviser Sir Patrick Vallance has said that millions of Britons will need to catch coronavirus in order to develop a “herd immunity” and control the impact of the disease which, much like the flu, is likely to return “year on year”.
Herd immunity is the resistance to a contagious disease within a population, which makes it difficult for them to spread. This is often achieved because a high percentage of the population is vaccinated. However, there is currently no vaccine available for coronavirus, and Sir Patrick Vallance has said a working coronavirus vaccine is unlikely to be produced in time for the current outbreak.
‘Herd’ or natural immunities protect vulnerable people such as newborn babies and the elderly, because those around them are less likely to carry infectious diseases.
Sir Patrick Vallance has estimated that around 60% of the UK’s population of around 66.4 million will need to become infected in order to achieve herd immunity.
This means that some 40 million people would need to catch the virus. The available evidence suggests that of that number, 32 million would have only mild symptoms. But, this means that around 8 million people could become severe cases and require hospital treatment.
In the absence of a mass vaccinations programme, for the UK population to gain herd immunity a large enough number of people will need to contract the virus and then recover.
They should then be much less likely to get the virus – and less likely to spread it – than they were before.
At present, each person who catches Coronavirus is likely to pass it on to between 2-3 other people.
The development of a natural immunity is, of course, in direct contrast of the current advice given by the government and NHS, which is to self-isolate and curb the spread. Sir Patrick Vallance has said that global scientific communities are aligned in how to tackle the crisis, but that it is simply a matter of timing.
This suggests efforts to delay the development of a herd immunity until a vaccine has been developed.
This weeks Coronavirus updates have included:
The UK government have announced plans to ban mass gatherings, and a number of sporting events have already been cancelled. Sir Patrick Vallance called this latest government advice a “big intervention”.
The World Health Organisation have declared Europe as the epicentre of the pandemic.
A petition calling for the UK to go into lockdown to prevent the spread of coronavirus has reached more than 110,000 signatures, meaning it will be considered for parliamentary debate.
More than 145,000 cases and almost 5,500 deaths have been declared worldwide.
Ministers for Northern Ireland have said that Covid-19 “will continue to spread in the coming months” and “cannot be stopped, but can be slowed in its tracks.”
The most recent UK cases include a mother and her newborn baby.
11 people have died.
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